Analisis Kinerja Metode Support Vector Regression (SVR) dalam Memprediksi Indeks Harga Konsumen

Abstract

The stability of commodity prices for food is very influential on the economy of a region because stable prices have a direct impact on the level of people's purchasing power. The need to maintain the stability of food commodity prices is the background of this research and this can be anticipated by forecasting the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The CPI is an index number that calculates the average change in prices of goods and services consumed by households and society. The purpose of this study is to predict the CPI of the Foodstuff Group using the Support Vector Regression (SVR) method by utilizing Linear, Polynomial, Gaussian Radial Basis Function (RBF) and SPLine Kernel Functions. Selection of this SVR method, because SVR is able to map input vectors into higher dimensions and can produce a function with a trend of bumpy data following the data path formed, resulting in more accurate predictive values Research is limited to the city of Surabaya, the period of time the study begins January 1, 2016 until December 31, 2018. The data source used is the Surabaya Food Basic Price data as an input variable with 34 input attributes and the CPI data for Surabaya city Foodstuffs group as output variables. The results of this study are expected to be able to predict CPI with an error rate below 5%, which is indicated by MSE (Mean Square Error) < 0.05